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Political “Science” and Its Forecasting Failures

Here’s a distinguished political scientist—Jacqueline Stevens—who agrees with me that the NSF ought to cut the funding for political science.  The Republicans in Congress think that these “scientists” are covertly […]

Election Notes: Santorum Sweeps the South

Rick Santorum had a great day on Tuesday, winning the Republican primaries in both Alabama and Mississippi—a state in which no poll had shown Santorum in the lead. Newt Gingrich, […]

Words With Candidates

How would you describe the Republican candidates? A Washington Post/Pew Research poll conducted two weeks ago asked respondents what one word came to mind when they heard the name of […]

Election Notes: The Beginning of the End

After Mitt Romney’s 12-point win in Illinois, it’s difficult to see how anyone else could win the Republican nomination. His lead in the delegate count over Rick Santorum has expanded […]

Santorum’s Swan Song?

It appears that Santorum’s time as a serious contender for the Republican nomination is about to come to a close.  It’s true that the experts (including me) have wrongly counted […]

Santorum, South Carolina, and Social Media

— By Victoria Bassetti, David Norton and Alan Rosenblatt Now that Mitt Romney can claim two wins in the Republican primaries/caucuses, where do his rivals go?  We know physically: South […]

Election Notes: Can Romney Beat Obama?

When Rick Santorum dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination, it removed the last real obstacle standing between Mitt Romney and the nomination. The race has really been […]

Election Notes: Super Tuesday Eve

Whatever happens next week on Super Tuesday, the race for the Republican nomination is likely going to go on for a while. By winning the Arizona and the Michigan primaries […]

Election Notes: What Mitt’s Victory Means

Mitt Romney looks more and more like the Republican nominee after soundly defeating the Republican field in the Florida Primary. Romney managed to get more votes than Newt Gingrich and […]

Can Conservatives Elect a Non-Romney?

The conservative conundrum regarding the Romney candidacy is the result of our plurality voting system that isn't flexible enough to accurately measure voter preferences. While this system is adequate for a head-to-head race, it is deeply problematic when there are multiple candidates.

U.S. Election Notes, January 19

As we approach Saturday’s Republican primary in South Carolina, Mitt Romney’s nomination is looking more and more likely. Political futures marketIntrade now gives Romney an almost 90% chance of winning […]

U.S. Election Notes, January 12

Mitt Romney’s convincing victory in New Hampshire—exit polls showed him winning in a wide variety of key groups—made him the first non-incumbent Republican in years to win both Iowa and […]

Saying vs. Doing and Gingrich vs. Obama

So, as I predicted, Romney is now 1-2.  And he’s gone from overwhelming favorite to a probable underdog.  Mitt is collapsing across the nation.  It’s easy to predict that Gingrich will […]

Why Ohio Matters

Here’s what we can expect for Super Tuesday. Mitt Romney will win his home state of Massachusetts, the neighboring state of Vermont, and Virginia, where Ron Paul is the only […]

Election Notes: Santorum Wins

Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney in all three Republican contests on Tuesday. Santorum won by sizable margins in both Missouri and Minnesota—where Romney came in third behind Ron Paul—although Missouri […]