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Guest Thinkers

More Truce Speculation

I exchanged a number of e-mails yesterday with contacts and friends in Yemen about the truce that al-Ghad reported, most of them are cautiously optimistic and mostly believe that the truce is legitimate. I’m a little more wary and would like to see some more evidence before I jump on the bandwagon.

In the meantime, one of the things I have been curious about is what this means for Saudis like Said Ali al-Shihri and Nayf Muhammad al-Qahtani in Yemen. Given what al-Wahayshi and al-Raymi got – the release of 250 prisoners – in exchange for ceasing attacks in Yemen, it would be hard to fathom that they would sell out their Saudi allies. Still, it is hard to see the Saudis continuing to operate in Yemen without the support of al-Wahayshi and al-Raymi. It will also be interesting to see – if the truce is legitimate – whether al-Wahayshi and al-Raymi are able to sell it to the rest of their troops.


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